Who is buying this? Anyone?
People can talk themselves into the craziest things. Last night, I saw a commercial for the video game DJ Hero for PS3. The premise is to use a turntable controller the same way you use a guitar controller, drums, and a microphone for the wildly popular Guitar Hero. I can just see the creators from Activision saying to each other, “It worked for Guitars, Drums, and Singers…there has to be a market for kids who want to be disk jockeys too, right?” Who is buying this game?! Sure, there will be the few fringe gamers who love music enough to buy the absurd looking turntable controller and shell out for this. But, ultimately, this will probably flop and hold true to the thoughts of “Maybe this isn’t such a good idea” that the creators initially ignored. But that’s what people do! They see something that initially looks decent, and manage to talk themselves into it by using a million different excuses. Guys do it when eying women at a bar, girls do it when shopping for new clothes, kids with toys, and so on. However, nowhere is this more prevalent on a daily basis than sports. Just look at the 2009-2010 Detroit Pistons.
Piston fans started talking themselves into this season’s potential the minute Joe Dumars traded away Chauncey Billups for Allen Iverson. Beat writers and fans alike applauded Dumars for getting rid of Billups’ huge contract in favor for Iverson’s expiring deal. This would free up tons of money the following summer for free agency and allow the Pistons to be players in the 2010 off-season. And if Iverson happened to go against everything he has shown people and become a team player? Bonus! When things started to go downhill last season, people still said, “It’s OK…We got free agency to think about. Joe will bail us out.” But did he? Dumars spent $94 Million dollars on Charlie Villanueva (6.5 million this year) and Ben Gordon (10 million) and essentially left us very little chance of signing an elite NBA talent in the “Summer to End All Free Agent Summers” of 2010. We heard about how great Gordon had played in the playoffs against Boston, and how versatile and athletic CV31 was in Milwaukee, even though fans who watched these two play against the Pistons never thought “Wow, this guy is better than what we already have.” Villanueva averaged 14 pts and 5 rebs against the Pistons last season, while Gordon had a slightly more impressive 20 points and 4 asts.
Show Us The Money
This left the fan base wondering what just happened and looking at this season like the drunk guy checking out the semi-attractive girl at last call. It’s not a smart choice at first glance, but then he starts to think about it and eventually he’s walking out of the bar with a Size 16 on his arm. Fans have a tendency to sometimes talk themselves into things without listening to that initial reaction. Malcolm Gladwell explores a similar theory in the opening chapters of Outliers, using the example of how experts in the art community could tell a statue was a fake, despite what other people might have said previously about the piece. Sports fans are as guilty as any group at ignoring basic gut instincts. They overlook certain variables in the interest of rooting as hard as they can for their favorite teams.
In honor of the 2009-10 Detroit Pistons, here are 5 of those overlooked factors that many people aren’t thinking about:
1. Joe Dumars has carte blanche as far as job security: Ever since he built a title winner in 2004, the saying around Detroit has always been “In Joe We Trust.” But now after signing Ben Gordon and CV31 to long term deals, he has handcuffed himself to financing talent through next year’s draft with limited money to play with in “The Free Agency Period to End All Free Agency Periods.” I understand that Joe might have been trying to beat the rush by loading up this year, finding chemistry in his young players, and then sneak up on people while the big money players next summer are trying to make their new free agents fit in the 2010-11 season. The jury is still out on whether this was a good move. If this does work, Dumars is vindicated by letting Billups leave and signing Ben Gordon, even after having three elite SGs proved to be disastrous last year with Stuckey/Hamilton/and Iverson (Note: For those of you who say Stuckey is a PG, we will get to that later).
If all these moves don’t come together in the next year, and the Pistons fall below .500, I guarantee (let me say again: GUARANTEE) Joe Dumars will be your GM next year. Why? Well…..
2. Who is running the Detroit Pistons? Quick! Give me the FIRST NAME of the owner of the Detroit Pistons…Go ahead. I’ll wait while you Google it.
The answer is Karen Davidson (wife of late owner Bill Davidson), and yes, I had to look that one up, too. This is probably one of the biggest Piston storylines this year, but hasn’t received the publicity it deserves. Throughout much of the past decade, Dumars was Bill Davidson’s good friend and confidant. Ever since Davidson signed Joe as a player, the two had a great relationship. Many stories have been written about the times Joe spent in Mr. D’s office, just talking about family, vacations they took, and more important issues than hoops. I have no doubt he let his wife know how much Joe meant to him. Combine that with the fact that Mrs. Davidson is brand new at running an NBA franchise and one has to think: “If Joe has another sub-par year, can she do what is necessary to take this team in a new direction?” Here is a quote from Karen Davidson from an article on MLive by A. Sherrod Blakely:
“It’s a different world as someone who has an economic interest in it, and someone who is just sitting there next to the one with an economic interest,” Karen Davidson said. “It’s going to be a challenge for all the owners now.”
We’ll see how well she adjusts to that world, what type of owner she becomes, and whether or not she plans on keeping the team. With limited experience in running a major corporation (let alone, a NBA franchise), you’d have to think she is leaning hard on Palace President Tom Wilson and Dumars for advice. Expect Dumars to be around for 2010-11.
3. Will Bynum is the Pistons’ best PG: According to John Hollinger of ESPN.com, Bynum had the highest PER (Player Efficiency Rating) of anyone on last year’s team. He was one of the best backups in the league at his position, averaging 7 points and 3 assists of the bench, a good on-the-ball defender, and shooting almost 50 percent from the floor. I’ve been to 3 preseason games so far, and you can tell just by looking at him that he has something to prove. After a season where people questioned his size and strength, he hit the gym and now looks like Manny Pacquiao. Forget for a moment that this guy is the quickest guy on the floor most nights. Never underestimate guys who go undrafted and are hungry (Ben Wallace in his prime?). Bynum has both and I think he could start if he cut down his turnovers (76 TOs in 57 games played). Do I think he is better than Stuckey? No. But…
4. Stuckey is not a natural point guard: Another DJ Hero-type example of what happens when people talk themselves into situations they know, deep down, have very little chance of working out. Some would say, “Well, Billups wasn’t a prototype PG.” Well, Larry Brown isn’t here to teach Stuckey how to be that Billups-type PG. Billups isn’t even here anymore to show him the ropes. He’s had Flip Saunders and Michael Curry as the only two coaches of his pro career. Saunders couldn’t teach Chauncey and Stephon Marbury the position in Minnesota and Curry…well, it was just all bad, really. Maybe it was coaching, but I like Stuckey the best when he is on the wing and can utilize that quick first step to get to the rim or create space for the quick pull-up (a move Ben Gordon will help him perfect). But he looks lost sometimes when he is trying to distribute and get the offense into a rhythm. He is a good SG and a good PG, but it’s as if he can’t bring the best of both worlds together at the same time to make himself as effective as Billups once was in that same mold. That essentially gives the Pistons 2.5 good SGs and 1.5 true PGs. They could use one more true point guard, but unfortunately that’s probably not their biggest concern. With a thin front court at the center spot, the Pistons might look to make a move early in the season. Which means…
5. Tayshaun Prince is not who we thought he was and we should let him off the hook….meaning he needs to go. Now. I don’t know what Joe D’s attachment is with Tayshaun. Maybe it is the fact that Tayshaun was a lockdown defender from 2002-05. Or maybe it’s because Tayshaun is one of the few bright spots of Dumars’ draft history with the Darkos, the Amir Johnsons, and the Mateen Cleaves-type picks. Whatever the reason, he is not going to take that jump to become an assertive scorer (at least not with the Pistons). And ever since Lebron put up those 35 late-game points in what is now simply known in Cleveland as “Game 5,” Prince hasn’t shown he is the lockdown guy he once was. We remember him catching Reggie Miller in 2004 on that breakaway, but has he had one of those memorable defensive plays the past two seasons? I can’t think of one.
So here is what I suggest: Send him home to Compton. Package him with Maxiell or one of our SGs to the Los Angeles Clippers for Chris Kaman and a pick. Or maybe you look to the Warriors and try to work a three team deal that would send Tayshaun to GS, Biedrins to DET, and Stephen Jackson to a third team. I think Detroit might be able to sign Kaman to a deal next summer that would bring the CMU alum home and add depth to the frontcourt, so that deal might have to wait. As for his history of injuries, if the Pistons can keep McDyess healthy, Kaman would be able to hold up as well.
Final Prediction: I see the Pistons finishing no more than 5 games over .500 (46 wins). Preaching defense to guys who aren’t used to doing it well (Gordon, CV31, and Rip) might be difficult, especially by a first year head coach (John Kuester). I think they have sleeper potential, but need to find some rhythm and a regular rotation before they can regularly win games.
I just hope the win total is greater than the number DJ Hero games sold.
February 6, 2010 at 4:20 am |
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